According to Asia's fact sheet from IPCC (2022), cyclones, floods, and typhoons have displaced 9.6 million in South, Southeast, and East Asia in 2019, or about 30% of total global displacement. This phenomenon will worsen as IPCC found that climate change in the form of rising temperature increases the floods in monsoon regions like Southeast Asia. Together with the heat stress, the fact shows that surges will highly likely harm food availability, resulting in undernourishment. In 2020, the floods combined with sea-level rise had increased the risk of 30,522 lives in Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia), Jakarta (Indonesia), and Ho Chi Minh (Vietnam). Furthermore, an additional 10,830 people will also be at high risk in 2035 (IPCC, 2022).
In Indonesia, the destructive impacts of climate change on the coastal sector, sea-level rise, will be responsible for 70.82% of the potential economic loss in 2024 for approximately 5.45 billion USD (National Development Planning Agency, 2019). The most vulnerable region is the northern coast of Java (Indonesia's densest island), mainly consisting of the coastal community's livelihood (settlements and activities), public facilities, and coastal agricultural lands, with around 60% of 145 million people living within the coastal area (Sidiq et al., 2021; Suroso & Firman, 2018). These are worsened due to 61.38% of the poor living within coastal areas (National Statistics, 2017). These numbers would increase as we are on track to the worst scenario of climate change (Schwalm et al., 2020). Moreover, a growing urban population that mainly occurs in the coastal cities of Java could turn them into a severely vulnerable region due to the high density and socio-economic pressures (National Development Planning Agency, 2009). Thus, the sea-level rise should be addressed precisely as it decreases the available land or space for human activities (Figure 1).
The essay will discuss the challenges Northern Java,
Indonesia, faces in implementing sea-level rise adaptation. Before discussing
the three main challenges: sceptic planning, maladaptation, and commodification,
it will briefly explain the contributors to coastal flooding and the need to prioritise
adaptation. The cases will then be concluded by explaining the importance of the
social-justice approach.
Coastal
flooding contributors
A report by IPCC
(2014b) shows that sea-level rise is caused
by thermal expansion due to rising sea temperature, glaciers melting, Greenland
& Antarctic ice sheet melting, and the shrinking of land water storage. Globally,
the sea level will likely rise from around 0.2 meters to 0.5 meters per one
degree Celcius. Thermal expansion explained 50% of sea-level rise from 1971 to 2018,
while ice loss from glaciers only contributed 22%, pole ice sheets loss at 20%,
and changes in land water storage at 8% (IPCC,
2021). The rising sea temperature in the
Java sea is dominated by thermal expansion, ranging from 0.4 cm/year to 0.7
cm/year (Sofian
& Nahib, 2010). Based on the method of spatial
trend analysis, the rate of sea temperature in the Java Sea for the last three
decades has been around 0.01oC/year to 0.025 oC/year (from
Reynolds, 1994 as cited in Sofian & Nahib, 2010).
Some other teleconnections events contribute to sea-level
rise. Firstly, tides are a common natural phenomenon worldwide due to the
movement of Earth and its moon regularly and periodically. The type of tides in
northern Java is mixed diurnal (Wyrtki,
1961), which means that the coast
experiences two high and two low tides of different heights in a day (24
hours). Secondly, La Nina and IOD negative are oceanography events measured
through the different sea surface temperatures. In the Java Sea, the water in
La Nina can be 0.9oC warmer than usual (Heryati
et al., 2018). Meanwhile, IOD negative is a
phenomenon in which the eastern Indian Ocean, Sumatra, is warmer than the west
due to intensifying westerly winds (Saji
et al., 1999). Thirdly, storm surge is characterised
by strong winds followed by a vast amount of energy from the wave and a higher
sea level. Although the Java sea is located in the equator with a tiny force of
the Coriolis effect and no tropical cyclone, the wave generated by strong winds
from cyclones can travel a thousand kilometers away and increase the sea level.
Lastly, Northern Java is experiencing anthropogenic land subsidence due to
massive groundwater extraction from industries and agriculture (Chaussard
et al., 2013; Sidiq et al., 2021). The land subsidence rate varies
from 6 to 21.8 cm/year along the coastal area (Figure 2). Land subsidence is
the most significant contributor to those effects on sea level (Table 1).
Table
1 Summary of coastal
flooding contributors in Northern Java
|
Phenomenon |
Rate and future occurrence |
|
Sea-level rise due to ocean warming |
0.4 cm – 0.7 cm per year (Sofian & Nahib,
2010) |
|
Tides |
48 cm during the highest water once
every lunar month (Nirwansyah &
Braun, 2019) |
|
La Nina |
18 cm – 45 cm in once every two to
three years (Heryati et al.,
2018) |
|
IOD negative |
Unknown effect on Java sea level rise,
but it occurs once every two years (Saji et al., 1999) |
|
Storm surge |
The sea level will rise 14 cm during a
storm (Ardiansyah, 2019). There will be fewer storms but
more severe (Knutson et al., 2010). |
|
Land subsidence |
6 cm – 21.8 cm per year (Chaussard et al.,
2013; Sidiq et al., 2021) |
Generally, there are two ways to address climate change: adaptation and mitigation (Table 2). In this context, adaptation is the act of adapting or adjusting to new changes caused by climate change, while mitigation is the act of tackling climate change at its primary source (carbon). Based on the global simulation and local contextual analysis, adaptation is preferable for the locals of Northern Java. Firstly, assuming that we manage to achieve the Paris Agreement in limiting the temperature rise below 1.5 OC and already having carbon removal technology which is currently still extremely rare and expensive, there will be only a slight decrease in sea-level rise (Figure 3). A simulation by Climate Interactive (2022) explains that even if we manage to have a negative net of carbon emission (carbon absorption is higher than carbon released in the air) or only 1.2oC of temperature increase in 2100, sea-level will keep rising. This phenomenon is due to the everlastingness ocean needs to be in an equilibrium state.requires 300 years (Climate Interactive, 2022). Currently, the atmosphere is much warmer than the ocean, even though the ocean has absorbed 90% of Earth's extra heat since 1955 (Levitus et al., 2012). Therefore, no matter how good the global mitigation is, Northern Java must have an adaptation option.
Table 2 The fundamental differences between
adaptation and mitigation (Suroso,
2020)
|
|
Adaptation |
Mitigation |
|
Target |
Improving
the community livelihood through
the assessment of risk which involves a lot of indicators of socio-economic
variables. |
Reducing
carbon emission through the
calculation of carbon rate. |
|
Scale |
It requires local actions due to each region experiences different climate
change impacts. |
It needs global changes especially substituting the fossil fuel energy
with the green and sustainable ones. Even though each country produces
different carbon emission, eventually every place on Earth will have the same
carbon concentration. |
|
Approach and indicator |
It focuses on how adaptation can bring benefits to the local community through reducing the impact of climate change.
In the forest management, it focuses on how forest is conserved in
sustainable ways that will benefits the society. |
It emphasizes on how policies can reduce the carbon footprint. In the forest
management, it focuses on how to reduce the rate of deforestation. |
Figure 3 Sea-level will keep rising although
if we have managed to remarkably decrease the carbon emission (Climate
Interactive, 2022)
Secondly, although there is a decreased number of farmers and fishermen, most locals still rely on their income from agriculture and fishery sector, followed by market trade (Figure 4). There are also an increasing number of manufacturers and services. However, most of them are still considered poor because of two things: informal jobs and the cheap labour cost. These are similar to what Padawangi and Douglass (2015) found; they heavily rely on informal and dangerous jobs without any assurance, such as being traditional fishermen, the fish seller (being labour, not the owner), boat services, farmers, and doing the laundry for the neighbourhood middle-class residences. Handayani and Kumalasari (2015) also noticed that the foreign investments are harnessing the cheap labour cost to put their funding on industries in North Java, attracting migration (Figure 5), increasing the poor, and creating peripheral urbanisation, resulting in disparity among regions and inequality gaps. Not only being deprived, but they might also be a victim of climate injustice as they only produce a tiny amount of CO2 (Figure 6). Generally, carbon emission per capita in Indonesia is only 2.16 tons/year (Ritchie & Roser, 2021). The locals of northern Java might remain well below the limitation target (2.3 tons/year) to achieve the Paris Agreement in 2030 (Baker, 2021).
The sceptic planning and lack of community involvement
Although the industry and residency are the biggest consumption of groundwater which caused land subsidence, ironically the government still prioritise developing new settlement and industrial areas. This is the opposite of the fundamental role of planners in climate change adaptation, which is designing the zone of urban areas, including giving permission or discouraging land uses that may increase the risk of climate change (Carter & Sheriff, 2011). As a powerful tool to shape the coastal region, land use and urban sprawl must consider the hazards of sea level change (Neumann et al., 2015). In the context of integrating climate change adaptation to spatial planning, the first Indonesian Climate Change Sectoral Roadmaps (ICCSR) has recommended limiting and controlling land use conversion to urban areas in Northern Java (National Development Planning Agency, 2009). However, a study by Suroso and Firman (2018) proves that spatial planning in Northern Java might worsen the existing condition and increase climate change exposure. They analysed the existing maps and the future spatial plan[1] of each province in Java and overlaid them with the sea-level rise inundation map in 2030. The result shows that the current land use of agriculture and ponds already submerged today will still be planned and converted to a new industrial zone and settlement area in 2030. The projected economic loss due to inundation will be around US$246.6 billion.
The guidelines of National Adaptation Plans have been revised and published periodically to have a significant role in supporting climate change adaptations. From ICCSR in 2009 to Climate Resilience Development 2020-2045, these conceptual guidelines were designed by experts and published by the Ministry of Planning. However, Sibarani (2017) found a constraint in implementing technical actions, municipalities' lack of capacity, and a narrow understanding of the context. Similarly, according to Nurhidayah and McIlgorm (2019), the six planning legislations[2] used to design climate change adaptation frameworks only focus on the specific context of hazard assessed merely on climate science instead of the socio-economic approach. They concluded that the assessment of climate change adaptation is too narrow as it does not consider the perspectives of vulnerability from the local communities and involve them in the decision-making process. Although there is an effort to mainstream climate change adaptation into existing spatial planning regulations and increase the capacity of buildings among the local leaders, the result of the project only emphasises the re-definition of the terminology used and more technocrat involvement (Latief et al., 2021) rather than community involvement.
Maladaptation
Actions can be considered maladaptive if they raise the likelihood of adverse climate-related outcomes, enhance exposure to climate change, or reduce well-being now or in the future (Barnett et al., 2013; IPCC, 2014a). Salim et al. (2019) found that the planned giant 32-km-seawall known as The Great Garuda in Jakarta Bay is a maladaptive action in Northern Java (Figure 8). Firstly, given the enormous magnitude of the development, the mammoth dredging and reclamation operation will have a large glasshouse gas footprint. Secondly, tens of thousands of low-income families in Jakarta Bay who depend on small-scale fishing and aquaculture will have to leave their homes due to the project. These small fishing communities would be compelled to relocate to make way for the new construction. Salim et al. (2019) also note that the recent developments follow Jakarta’s long-running trend of “superblocks” development, which has resulted in the creation of enclaves in which most critical services are privatised. Thirdly, the Great Garuda is projected to need around US$40 billion over 30 years, equaling nearly five per cent of Indonesia’s GDP. This project indicates that the government ignores the burdened problem of Jakarta’s marginalised communities (Kusno, 2011).
Commodification
Efforts have emphasised development that primarily involves
the marginalised through embracing community engagement (Uitermark & Nicholls, 2017). Still, some adaptations ignore it
and become a tool to commodify an area and produce new inequality. There are
unfair settings and unequal power distribution behind this mechanism. Firstly,
through international capitalism, most foreign investments put their funding on
industries in North Java due to its cheap labour cost (Handayani & Kumalasari, 2015). Besides attracting more migrants to
work in informal sectors, the rapid land price increases produce an unequal
setting as the marginalised and new migrants often end up staying along the
high-risk area such as the river and coastline (Padawangi, 2012). Such a phenomenon can be one factor
that widens the gaps between the “have” and the “have not”, as those
segregations may trigger tensions and disrupt stability (Roitman & Recio, 2020). Secondly, according to Padawangi and Douglass (2015), there is also unequal power
distribution as the marginalised are often blamed for obstructing the river
flow with uncontrolled garbages. They found that such a thing develops the
constant fear of being displaced for the poor under the name of flood
management projects such as river dredging and widening. The study showed that
most relocations were rejected by the marginalised as the projects
only create conflicts and exchange the solution to the environmental problem
that the community face with the new issue of socio-economic, in which the
people have no familiarity with the new environment as they need to change jobs
and interactions. Interestingly,
when the land clearing procedure was completed, this technicist planning focused
on developing new projects which attracted the markets to re-build the area
that is ironically still near the waterway (Padawangi, 2012; Padawangi &
Douglass, 2015).
The need for social justice planning in climate change
adaptation
Despite the less carbon emission they produce, the Northern
Java coastal community is Indonesia's climate frontier. They experienced coastal
flooding several times due to high tides, storm surges, high rain intensity,
and land subsidence. With the rapid urban growth and the inability to have
proper and safe living spaces, they often end up with no choice other than to
live in the most prone areas to climate change. This case is exacerbated by the
inability of the government to execute and involve the community in adaptation.
Those conditions are defined by Marcuse
(2009, p. 190) as the deprived, which the
definition is as follows,
'… those who directly oppressed, the homeless, the hungry, the imprisoned, the persecuted on gender, religious, and racial grounds… those superficially integrated into the system and sharing in its material benefits, but constrained in their opportunities for creative activity, oppressed in their relationship… unfulfilled in their lives' hopes.'
Eriksen et al. (2021) show that the absence of local's
involvement in addressing climate change will lead to maladaptation due to four
mechanisms: a lack of understanding of vulnerability context, inequitable
community participation during the design & implementation, an unclear
definition of successful adaptation, and a “rebranding” of an existing project
in the name of mainstreaming adaptation. These actions exacerbate the current
social stratification and put the marginalised or the low carbon emitter as the
most affected community (Eriksen et al., 2021; Marino &
Ribot, 2012). Furthermore, the adaptation is
decided through a top-down mechanism, and unequal power relations between
stakeholders often lead to conflict and injustice due to the capital
accumulation by the elite that widens the inequality gaps (Eriksen et al., 2021). Scoville-Simonds et al. (2020) illustrate this phenomenon as “an
anti-politic machine through the control pattern of elite technocratic
approach” because of the exclusive participation and reliance of climate
science experts without considering societies and political economy.
Therefore, understanding social justice in climate change
adaptation in the social context is essential to deciding the best adaptation
option. It focuses on the side-effect of rapid urbanisation which put
perspective on the oppressed community or is based on the grass-root group (Marcuse,
2011). There is an urgency to do so as the
locals and even the marginalised must have already known what and which
variables contribute to vulnerability in their daily lives (Uitermark & Nicholls, 2017). The initiative must come initially
from the grassroots community that understands the demand and surrounding
conditions (Wakely,
2020). Moreover, a definition, design, and
implementation from the affected’s perspective can reduce inequality and
increase a fair distribution of benefits among all society groups (Roitman, 2016).
[1] The future spatial plans used in the study are Spatial Plan of Banten Province 2010-2030, Spatial Plan of West Java Province 2009-2029, Spatial Plan of Central Java Province 2009-2029, and Spatial Plan of East Java Province 2011-2029.
[2] Law 24/2007 on Disaster
Management, Law 32/2014 on Sea, Law 26/2007 on Spatial Planning, Law 27/2007 on
Management of Coastal Area and Small Island, Law 32/20009 on Environment
Protection and Management, and Law 7/2016 on Protection and Empowerment of
Small Scale Fisherm Aqualculture Farmers, and Salt Farmers.
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